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Northern Manhattan Investment Sales Jump In the First Half 2011

Featuring Our Northern Manhattan 2011 Mid-Year Sales Report

Investment sales in Northern Manhattan jumped 30 percent in transaction volume and 34 percent in dollar volume in the first half of 2011 compared to the second half of 2010, according to Ariel Property Advisors’ Northern Manhattan 2011 Mid-Year Sales Report. For the first six months of the year, Northern Manhattan saw 107 trades totaling $259 million.

“We’re pleased to report that there has been a clear improvement in the investment market in Northern Manhattan in the first six months of the year,” said Michael Tortorici, vice president of Ariel Property Advisors. “We anticipate that the second half will be even more active because recent bidding activity has been strong on the available inventory.”

Multifamily assets made up nearly 80 percent of the total dollar volume of investment sales in Northern Manhattan in the first half of 2011.

The Northern Manhattan team sees several reasons for optimism. “Real estate fundamentals are quickly turning in favor of property owners as rising rents, firm condo prices, tight supply, and continued low interest rates add upward pressure on prices,” said Victor Sozio, vice president of Ariel Property Advisors. “We’re already seeing this with development sites, where 2011 prices are 10 to 15 percent higher than 2010.”

Although sales for development sites for the first half of the year were light compared to the second half of 2010, a higher number of transactions are expected for the second half of 2011 as indicated by the amount of development properties under contract and set to close later this year. Ariel Property Advisors, for example, has six development sites in contract and several more on the way. The Ariel team sees this activity as an indication that the development market has moved beyond the “bottom” and is headed up.

The following is a breakdown of the investment assets in Northern Manhattan in the first half of 2011:

Multifamily: In the first half of 2011, Northern Manhattan’s multifamily asset class saw 59 transactions totaling $207 million in gross sales, which is a 39 percent increase in transaction volume and a 34 percent increase in dollar volume compared to the second half of 2010. Average cap rates increased to 7.55 percent, compared to 7.01 percent last year, and average gross multiples came in at 7.7 percent, a 5.5 percent decline from the previous year. The average price per square foot in the first half of 2011 increased to $182, a 20 percent jump compared to 2010, and the highest level since 2007 when multifamily assets traded at $239 per square foot.

Development Sites: Seven development sites traded in Northern Manhattan in the first six months of 2011 for a total aggregate consideration of $9 million, compared to 12 for an aggregate consideration of $28 million in the last six months of 2010. At $79, the average price per buildable square foot was 14.5 percent higher than last year, which suggests the market has passed the bottom in terms of development site prices in Upper Manhattan.

User Properties: With 37 transactions in the first six months of 2011, the number of trades for the user property segment was 20 percent higher than the levels seen in the second half of 2010. The average price per square foot for renovated user townhouses dropped 9 percent from 2010 figures, settling at $274 per square foot.

Commercial: Four commercial properties traded in the first half of 2011, compared to three in the last half of 2010.

Please go to www.arielpa.com/research/reports for a copy of the interactive research report.

Our Observations For the Week

The New York State Labor Department reported the state gained 13,600 private sector jobs in June 2011, and an increase in the state unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) to 8.0 percent in June from 7.8 percent in May. The number of unemployed New Yorkers also increased to 760,500 in June from 751,600 in May. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in New York City increased to 8.7 percent in June from 8.6 percent in May. The national unemployment rate in June was 9.2 percent.

The Bloomberg Administration has announced two economic development projects for 125th St. in Harlem. The NYC Economic Development Corporation has selected Janus Partners LLC and Monadnock Construction, Inc. to redevelop the former Taystee Bakery complex in West Harlem into CREATE @ Harlem Green, providing an additional 328,000 square feet of commercial and industrial space to house a number of tenants from creative industries. NYCEDC also selected 125th Street Equities LLC to redevelop the Corn Exchange Building at 125th St. and Park Ave., rehabilitate its landmarked base and add six additional floors for office and retail use. The two sites have each been vacant for several decades.

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